Across the country, senior living developers are gearing up for a new wave of projects on the upper end of the market, where higher rents can justify the cost of developing a community today.
One big example of that trend at work lies with Sunrise Senior Living and the operator’s $7.5 billion development pipeline. The company’s leaders are embarking on what CEO Jack Callison called “the largest actionable development pipeline” in senior living today with more than 50 communities planned in high-barrier markets like Tarrytown, New York, and Long Beach, California.
According to the latest NIC MAP data, senior living companies were planning new 88,283 units across 214 markets as of the second quarter of 2026. Not all of these projects will advance to the finish line.
The NIC MAP data shows almost 95% of units were in pre-planning or planning as of 2Q26 and only 5.5% of the projects were in the bidding or final planning stages. Almost three-fourths of those units (71%) are coming together in primary markets, and more than three-fourths of those are planned in four coastal regions: The Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific and Northeast.
Companies like American House Senior Living and REDICO have not stopped growing amid tougher conditions for new development projects. The company’s leaders are primarily targeting markets on the East Coast in states like Maryland, Delaware and Florida. It is developing communities that can command high-end rates, as those are the only projects that currently pencil out, according to Samantha Eckhout, managing director of investments at REDICO, who spoke during a panel at the NIC Fall Conference earlier this week.
Leaders of senior living operator Brightview Senior Living are taking a similar view. The company has throughout its history worked with investors through a series of funds, and it’s currently targeting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for growth.
Brightview designs communities in bespoke ways with brands that connect with the larger surrounding community, according to Steve Marker, senior vice president of development. In new communities, residents desire space. Brightview’s leaders are catering to those desires by building properties with larger walk-in closets, bigger bathrooms and more one- and two-bedroom units.
American House’s planners similarly aim to create communities with all the features a new resident could want, Eckhout said.
But only some deals currently pencil out in planning, said Jennifer Wong, director of acquisitions at AEW Capital Management. The escalation of the cost of development is among the industry’s biggest barriers to growth.
On the plus side, more banks have returned to lending for senior living development projects, said Molly Odgers, vice president of BOK Financial’s senior housing group.
Despite the ever-present allure of converting other property types into senior living, none of the speakers on the panel have embarked on such a project lately.
“They’re always really compelling on paper. The locations are irreplaceable, I love the idea of sustainability,” Wong said. “But we just haven’t been able to make it work. From a customer experience perspective, you really cannot retrofit an existing building to meet the needs of today’s consumer.”
While high-end projects pencil out in 2026, middle-market projects, which require lower rental rates for residents, do not. The problem is that these projects can’t deliver the kind of returns that developers and their partners need for the green light.
Even counting high-end projects, the senior living industry’s current growth push falls far short of the current level of absorption, and that is especially true for communities geared toward middle-income residents who can’t afford today’s rates.
“That’s really where we’re not meeting the demand,” Eckhout said.
Companies featured in this article:
AEW Capital Management, American House Senior Living, BOK Financial, Brightview Senior Living, REDICO
