The number of worldwide dementia cases could more than double by 2050, according to a new analysis of dementia rates published in JAMA Neurology.
In 2023, 11.4 million people across the globe developed dementia, and that number could rise to 24.7 million by 2050, according to the analysis by University of New South Wales-Sydney’s Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), in which researchers analyzed data from 38,418 people in 22 studies spanning 18 countries.
Dementia impacts more than 57 million people worldwide, and previous research projected that figure to rise to 150 million cases of dementia by 2050.
This helps provide a “new global benchmark” for understanding the rate of dementia occurring across varied groups. The rate of dementia was higher for women than men and “substantially higher” in low- and middle-income countries, the researchers found.
The study evaluated the rate of new dementia cases rather than the prevalence of dementia, and the researchers said understanding the incidence rate can help guide future governmental and healthcare-related policy decisions in the diagnosis, clinical care and support for those living with dementia.
In over 287,000 person-years of monitoring, dementia occurred in 3,001 participants. The global standardized incidence rate was 9.7 per 1,000 person-years, with age-adjusted figures showing a higher occurrence in women than men (10.6 in women versus 8.6 in men per 1,000 person-years), the study found.
“For the first time, we can compare dementia incidence across a geographically diverse group of populations using the same statistical approach, giving us a clearer picture of where and among whom new cases are occurring,” said lead author Ashleigh Vella, who serves as a postdoctoral research fellow at CHeBA. “What stands out is that dementia incidence is not evenly distributed. We see higher rates among women and in low- and middle-income countries.”
The team looked to overcome limitations in past dementia research through an international consortium that brought together data from longitudinal studies of aging and memory, covering six low- and middle-income countries and 12 high-income countries, and using “consistent statistical methods” and clinically based dementia diagnoses across all research.
“The higher incidence we observed in low- and middle-income countries is particularly concerning because these regions are experiencing rapid population ageing while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care,” said senior author and CHeBA Co-Director Perminder Sachdev. “Our findings highlight the urgent need to strengthen dementia risk reduction and health-care capacity globally, while investing in better local data so services can be planned according to the needs of individual countries.”
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