The rate at which CCRCs increase rent for residents  could influence average occupancy, while occupancy growth may keep rental rate increases lower in some cases.

That’s according to data analysis on continuing care retirement communities (CCRC) by NIC MAP Vision of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC).

The analysis focused on rental and entrance-fee CCRCs between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of this year, 68% of entrance fee CCRCs in NIC primary markets reported independent living occupancy greater than 90%, the highest among all care types. That was closely followed by 64% of entrance fee CCRCs reporting greater than 90% occupancy in memory care units.

The NIC MAP Vision analysis by NIC Principal Omar Zahraoui found that a pattern emerged where regions with stronger census growth “generally reported smaller rent growth.”

A total of 90% of entrance fee independent living segments reported occupancy above 80% in the first quarter of this year, followed by 87% of entrance fee CCRCs in primary markets with over 80% occupancy, NIC MAP Vision data shows.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions reported lower rent growth in comparison to the Southeast, which had higher rent increases but lower occupancy growth. Comparing the data to 2022 figures, the Southeast reported the highest rent growth but the least occupancy gain.

Overall, the senior living industry has experienced ongoing occupancy gains over the last four years. NIC MAP Vision reported an average industry occupancy of 85.6% in the first quarter of 2024, representing a gain of 7.8 percentage points from the low-occupancy trough of 77.8% in the second quarter of 2021.

A recent report by investment bank Ziegler and NIC MAP Vision shows occupancy in independent living, assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing units in life plan communities increased between 1.1% and 3.4% compared to last year.
This comes even as nonprofit life plan communities still face a “deteriorating” outlook, according to Fitch Ratings.