Based on preliminary projections of fiscal year 2014 FMAPs (Federal Medical Assistance Percentage—the share of each state’s Medicaid costs that the federal government covers), a majority of states should expect a decline in how much they will receive from the government, according to a report conducted by Vic Miller, a Medicaid finance expert who was the founder and first director of Federal Funds Information for States (FFIS) and who has previously conducted similar reports for the National Association of Medicaid Directors.
About 30 states are projected to experience a decline, and only between four and seven could experience an increase, says the report.
“This reflects personal income shifts among the states as well as an unusual population growth pattern reported by the Census Bureau for 2009-2011,” it says. “Overall, the shifts are estimated to decrease federal Medicaid grants in FY 2014 by $1.1 to $1.9 billion when compared to the FMAPs for the current FY 2012, with decreases of $2 to $3 billion offset by somewhat more than $1 billion of increases for gaining states.”
Additionally, adjusting for Medicaid eligibility expansion under the Affordable Care Act could cause “financial and program disruptions, as the federal government attempts to derive blended FMAPs for the two parts of the program.”
This is bad news for nursing homes, many of which rely heavily on Medicaid reimbursements. A study released in 2011 revealed a $6 billion Medicaid funding shortfall to nursing homes that year.
Click here to view the report, which includes a table of possible changes in 2014 FMAPs and potential financial impacts for all 50 states.
Written by Alyssa Gerace