Senior Housing Industry Outlook & Trends For 2009
Want to know what we think are going to be senior housing trends in 2009? We looked into the magic, crystal ball and here is a preview of 10 topics and issues that may be hot in 2009….we will be addressing these further over the next month or so:
1. When will housing prices find a bottom and how long can seniors wait to sell their homes before migrating to other senior housing options: Without some kind of drastic government intervention, look for this issue to drag at least for the first six to nine months of 2009.
2. Reverse mortgages for home purchases. Effective January 2009 a reverse mortgage product that allows seniors to simultaneously purchase a home and obtain a reverse mortgage will be announced. Look for lenders to implement later in the spring and for real estate agents to use this as a means to get seniors to downsize their living spaces.
3. More senior housing related entities file bankruptcy. Look for large and small senior housing providers to file bankruptcy or have to merge some facilities and outright close others due to financial difficulties.
4. More children moving back home with their senior parents or moving parents into the children’s home. The unemployed are more likely to care for elderly parents at home, instead of putting them in more expensive retirement homes or assisted living communities. They also might pull parents out of facilities and move them back home to cut costs.
5. New senior housing projects slowed & more modification of existing buildings and facilities for seniors . New construction will be negligible as the credit markets continue to search for healing and developers will need to look to rehabilitate or modify existing structures to provide a means for new senior living communities. The lack of new development may last for an extended period of time but demographics and fundamentals will ultimately rise into a robust development period.
6. Will Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement rate increases be sufficient to cover senior housing expenses and will the current economic environment and its stimulus trump any significant changes to the structure of Medicare and Medicaid? When seniors are strapped for cash, where does Long Term Care Insurance fall into the list of priorities?
7. Innovative models for senior housing: small bands of seniors bonding in 4 flats? Privately held small apartment buildings self managed by seniors that live there? More Coops? College dormitory style living? The return of the travel trailer? So many choices….
8. Need for affordable senior housing is in short supply: What is an affordable price? What is the standard in 2009 for affordable, senior housing Probably not the high-end $5,000 to $6,000 a month market or is it more the sweet spot of the 3,500-3,000 a month.
9. Deflation hits costs at Senior Living Facilities: Will deflationary pressures lower prices on senior housing and its affiliated services as labor and wages are under pressure?
10. Sustainable development: Most newly constructed senior housing will rely on environmentally friendly development in order to have a longer, cheaper useful life.
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Category: Development, Management & Operators, Medicare and Medicaid, Reverse Mortgages, Senior Housing
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Good ideas, though some don't paint too rosy a picture for '09. Your innovative models ideas sound interesting. And the kids moving back – oh, my, again!
I think the ideas are good but I would like to offer another. Cottages…these would be built with a courtyard and the ability to fence in a back yard for pets. The houses could be one or two bedroom structures. The cost would be much less monthly than what has been described in the ideas listed before. Rent…$475 to $575 per month.
Hello Mr. Patterson,
I am responding to you 108 weeks after your post. I like your idea about affordable cottages. Could you contact me at lexy677@gmail.com
[...] mid-year is always a good time to evaluate then and now, so let’s take a look at an article on http://www.seniorhousingnews.com, which posted in January. The article listed 10 senior housing issues predicted to be hot topics; [...]
Has anyone read "Fountain of Youth"? It looks like it took an economic crisis and global warming to make people scrutinize how they wanted to live in their declining years. Small houses around a courtyard with shared eating and recreational spaces was proposed long ago. I am hoping the small house movement (energy saving, land saving, mutually supportive) combined with the awakening to green options preserves land for gardens, trees and food production will get a boost. Long term insurers will be under pressure to meet future obligations since their actuarial calculations were based on a standard expectation of growth of capital that the economy will not generate in the short term. Small uban revitalization projects will be the trend so seniors can walk or take public transportation to cultural events, grocery stores and friends. 1950 reworked!
You are right Lynn and Darcel ! So right that in another and quite different continent, here in Portugal, I feel the same. And of course if it has not been implemented so far is because the younger and capital people decided to do waht is the best – for them! They forgot that soon they will also be old.
We need small independent houses around a courtyard. in front of each house a small garden for us to care of flowers and a«have a reason to come outside everyday and in the back will have a small piece of land to have pets or lettuce. English and Spanish people have since long known the best way of living – look their houses, garden in front and backyard in the back. So we will have what to do and where to grow our food.